Scenario planning: What if T&T has another emergency like 1990?

What if T&T has another major emergency? Would you be prepared? Would you feel comfortable that the protective services can, or will? Any major emergency event can happen: T&T experiences a severe hurricane, great earthquake, an invasion from a neighbouring country, terrorists disrupting energy supplies or even another coup. Should the emergency occur over an extended period, can you feed, protect and shelter you family?

Within the first three or four days, the police will go around to the homes of those listed in the firearms register. They will confiscate all firearms and there isn’t a thing you can do about it (read sec 22[1] of the Firearms Act). No pleading, no reasoning, no calls to your superstar constitutional attorney can prevent it. You will be stripped of your legal means of protecting yourself and loved ones, right at the very moment that you need to the most.

The criminals and their families must eat and drink, so the looting begins. After HiLo, TruValu and the other major groceries have been stripped bare, then the smaller groceries and mini marts will also be attacked. Next, unless order is restored, the little neighbourhood shops and parlours will experience the same treatment. Finally, home invasions will be so rampant, that the protective services-being stretched so thin-may not respond.

Armed gangs will terrorise entire communities, picking off the weak, unprepared and unarmed at will. Home invasions, murders, rapes, kidnappings, auto theft, praedial larceny and illegal forcible evictions will be the order of the day.

We are told that one prepares for war in the time of peace. We missed that boat, the war is already on.

Scenario planning is a strategic planning method used by military intelligence and other organisations for flexible long-term plans. Neighbourhood watch groups, families, businesses and NGOs can adapt the methods to their particular environment. It is one way to build community resilience.

Get together with other stakeholders and develop your emergency plan now. Remember, a plan is not a plan, unless it is written down and can be shown to someone else. Otherwise it is still only an idea.

In ‘the fog of war’, ideas may be easily forgotten, and people revert to training and conditioning. Without plans, bad decisions are made, with sometimes fatal repercussions. Develop your plans today. Test them. Do an emergency drill. See what works, what doesn’t. Make your changes and test again. Refine your plan until it is good enough for your survival, and ensure all stakeholders internalize it, or at least have a copy.

Trust in God. But have recourse to lethal force.

Have a plan to survive. Prep your beans, bullets, band-aids and training.

Gov warns: social instability ahead

The government, through the Finance Minister has “warned of threats to social stability as the Government moves to make further budgetary cutbacks as a result of the continuing global financial crisis.”

“…threats to social stability…”. In what forms would these threats appear? How do we, average citizens, prepare for such threats? How do we defend against them? Is there a comprehensive plan to deal with said threats? Will the citizenry suffer like we did in the 1980s? George Santayana’s oft-quoted words, come to mind: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Will we really repeat the mistakes of the 80s, as some are predicting? Will the coming period be known as ‘1980s 2.0’ among local and regional economists?

Resilient communities should survive well. Now is the time to revisit our firearms laws, allow the law-abiding (and mentally healthy) citizens to arm themselves defensively, and institute compulsory national service for our restless youth. There is no room for idle hands, nor idle minds in this period of transition.

Pay attention to agriculture. It is an area that could generate a positive spiral. Skills learned, food security for communities, entrepreneurs developed, healthier individuals, less demand on the public health system, less cost to government. If more individuals are armed, then agricultural communities can institute their own ‘farm watch’ programs–with co-operation from the police–to deal with praedial larceny. Less demands on professional law enforcement.

Neigbourhood watch groups will need to be reformed, with laws allowing armed citizens to patrol their own neigbourhoods in concert with each other and the police.
Community policing with ‘teeth’. Bandits injured during altercations with members of these legitimate groups, should be prosecuted and rehabilitated. NWGs members should be provided with professional counseling–rather than prosecution–after such traumatic incidents. Consistent, continuous, standardised training and practice in a number of skill sets will be vital.

A civilian defense body, with grassroots support, can be born out of this trying period. This would be a part of the solution to potential social instability. Perhaps in partnership with the TT Cadet Force, TT Defence Force, TT Police Service, the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management, the Special Anti Crime Unit and the relevant government ministries.

Who knows, perhaps with innovation (we invented the steelpan), expertise (we have many MBAs, PhDs, MDs, Engineers), resolve (despite the seemingly insurmountable hurdles, and controversy, Carnival is enjoyed every year, by tens of thousands) and the will to survive (just look at some of our older politicians) and thrive, 2010-2020 can be the period that history records us as reinventing ourselves as a sovereign nation and people, whilst providing a model for other small nation states to emulate.
- Trini Funshooter

Resilient communities

Resilient Communities are communities that are supposed to be able to withstand disruptions and carry on with life, even if other communities are severely affected. Floods, violent crime, interruption of grid-supplied power and other disasters will not stop the community from operating. John Robb, a former US Air Force special ops pilot, and blogger of http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com has been credited with coining the term.

Here in TnT we have seen the effect of a little flooding on transportation, power, food supplies, infrastructure and law and order. Hapless, confused drivers and passengers were robbed on the C/R Highway, near Beetham Gardens, while trying to escape flood waters in our capital city. This was just a couple of hours of rain. Now imagine the compound effect of sustained rain, over several days.

Most of our communities will not qualify as RCs. Many people immediately look to central government for their most basic needs.
Even the umbrella agency specifically mandated with the task of disaster management and prevention seemed underprepared.

Should we look closely at this project, and perhaps learn and model, making adjustments that is suitable to our culture, climate and resources?

- Trini Funshooter