Venezuela to host Iran missiles?

Anna Mahjar-Barducci reports that Iran will place medium-range missiles in Venezuela under a November 2010 agreement between the two countries। The report states that the missiles can reach the USA।

If this is true, then we in Trinidad and Tobago need to develop a strategic plan to deal with any possible war scenarios between those three countries। After all, we are only eight miles off the coast of Venezuela! If US warships (or military bases in Colombia) lob missiles intended for Venezuela and said missiles veer off course by 10 miles in an easterly direction…

Venezuelan assets are not all inland either. Some targeted Venezuelan assets can be oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Paria. T&T and Venezuela also has a recently signed energy-sharing agreement।

One would hope that the Ministry of National Security has a well-refined plan to deal with this new threat to our nation’s interest, wellbeing and survival.

Venezuela and Colombia achieve détente

On the brink of war a few short weeks ago, Venezuela and Colombia have managed a loosening of tensions. Both countries presidents met and signed agreements in Santa Marta, Colombia recently. A re-establishment of diplomatic relations was pre-eminent.

The newly elected Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and his Venezuelan counterpart President Hugo Chavez agreed to set up five committees to address debt, border, security, joint projects and joint infrastructure.

Just a few weeks ago, the word ‘war’ was used in cross-border fiery rhetorical exchanges between President Chavez and (then) Colombian President Alvaro Uribe.

Trinidad and Tobago should follow these events very closely as the relationship between the two South American countries impact us because of geography, economy, military and social issues.

If minor flooding has us pushing out (firing) the ODPM’s CEO and apportioning blame, then an influx of Colombians and Venezuelans (maybe even US, British and Canadians fleeing to safety) will overwhelm us and our resources.

Then there is the issue of TT/Venezuela hydrocarbon agreements.

Venezuela’s militia

Venezuelan citizens train to defend their nation.

Venezuela is the South American country most likely to survive and repel an invading force. The simple reason for this is the civilian militia.

According to Global Firepower, Venezuela has an active troop strength of 800,000. President Chavez has boasted of a civilian militia numbering about one million. Some estimate the number may be closer to 100,000-200,000.

A modern conventional force from the USA or Brazil can easily overrun Venezuela. However, because of terrain, cultural, political and other factors, the invading force will have an even harder time than in Iraq.

With Venezuelan political leadership sharing ideology with neighbouring Bolivia and Ecuador, the Venezuelans will receive help from these countries with additional support from guerilla movements like FARC, and others.

As Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan has shown us, motivated civilian populations (through militia using guerilla tactics and asymmetrical warfare strategy) can harass, ambush, sabotage, detain and kill invading troops on a regular basis. This is quite effective in the Psy Ops area, serving to demoralize the invaders and forcing them to question their reasons for being in the country.

Because of our (self-inflated?) strategic importance to the USA, Trinidad and Tobago has never envisaged nor planned for an invasion by a foreign force. Our national defence planners assume that the US will defend us because of our oil and gas supplies. What happens when the gas and oil runs out?

With an active troop strength of 3,000 and a reserve of 500, miniscule Trinidad and Tobago would be easily occupied. What’s worse, an unbroken policy (since colonialism) of keeping a population disarmed has created a hoplophobic culture. Illegal guns proliferate among unemployed, ill-disciplined youth. Perhaps MILAT and MIPART can be the seeds from which our militia springs, as the fear of guns may be too deeply ingrained in the psyches of the older citizenry.

Even the world’s sole superpower considers a militia so vital to a nation’s survival that the 2nd amendment of the US constitution specifically grants the rights of gun ownership to all citizens, and mentions the militia in the same amendment.

Shouldn’t we be just as concerned about our nation’s survival?

Honduras coup; Venezuela military on alert

From top: Chavez, Bain, Zelaya, Venezuelan forces.

Honduran President Manuel Zelaya was ousted in military coup, and exiled to Costa Rica, this morning. Roberto Micheletti Bain, has replaced Zelaya. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has put the military on alert, vowing to use military force, if necessary, to replace Zelaya.

Honduras has a population of 7.5m, and maintains an active military force of 8,300 with 60,000 reserves. In 2002 there were 5,500 in the army, 1,800 in the air force, and 1,000 in the navy, including 400 marines. Paramilitary public security forces numbered 6,000 personnel. The US maintains a small military presence in Honduras.

Venezuela has a population of 26.5m and has 600,000 soldiers in four service branches--the Army, Navy (including the Marine Corps), Air Force, and the Armed Forces of Cooperation (FAC), also called National Guardia Nationale.

Should Honduras and Venezuela go to war, then Trinidad and Tobago-eight miles off Venezela’s coastline-will definitely feel the consequences. Perhaps our National Security Council met today and discussed our national defense plans with this latest scenario in mind. Could the NSC spokesperson please address the nation on this issue?

Got preps?

Vacation, Gun maintenance, Crime

Back from vacation. Details to follow, at another time. Recharged, renewed, re-energised and reloaded. Took time for introspection and re-evaluation. Plans to prepare, strategies to implement, and tactics to act out.

Ticked off a few goals on the 2009 list, but have to move faster to ensure the rest are accomplished before year’s end.


GUN MAINTENANCE

Dave bought a new spring for his rifle and will be replacing the old one tomorrow. He bought it for $150. The same spring is sold for $400 by another dealer. What a disparity! The first dealer will replace for $75, while we are allowed to look on. The latter dealer replaces in private, saying the law prevents us (the gun owners) from viewing the replacement process. Hmmmm.

We desperately need more gunsmiths in T&T. But even more importantly, we need more ethical gunsmiths. Not people who just want to get rich overnight, capitalizing on, and maintaining the ignorance of gun owners.


CRIME

A Trini living in Venezuela told me today, that they (ordinary citizens) shoot thieves and murderers in Venezuela, with no hassles from the police. In fact, the police are happy for the help. Ordinary citizens are allowed to be legally armed there. Militias are commonplace in many communities there.

Gold reserves

An opposition senator has advised government to convert the majority of its’ foreign reserve currency holdings into gold. Finally, a voice of wisdom and prudence.

Trinidad and Tobago has 1.9 tonnes (.7% of total reserves) of gold reserves held by the central bank. Venezuela holds 356.8 tonnes (33.3%) of its’ reserves in gold.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserves

Out of a listing of 107 countries holding gold as part of their reserves, Venezuela appears at #15, with T&T at #91.

Our net official reserves are US$9,145,500,000 (July 2008). If we convert about 25% (US$2,286,375,000) of that to gold, we will get 2,540,416 ounces troy of at least 99.95% purity. Add that to the 61,093 ozt (1.9 tonnes) we already hold in reserves and we will be holding 2,601,509 ozt (2.6 tonnes) worth US$2,341,358,000.

A well negotiated deal with our CARICOM neighbour and trading partner, Guyana, may even allow us to receive payment for our products in gold, at slightly below market rates. After all, we forgave three quarters of a billion dollars in debt just a few short years ago. The Guyanese are probably eager to show their appreciation for our magnanimity.

Every time the price of gold rises by US$10, the value of our gold holding will appreciate by US$26,000,000.

This will certainly be a tangible asset that has real value, will not corrode, and will be available for use, trade or conversion long after any of the world’s ‘monopoly (the game) currencies’ become worthless. Its uses are well documented and numerous: In electronics, electricity, the aviation/space industry, medicine, decoration, and of course, jewelry.

Two thousand years ago, one ounce troy of gold would buy a Greek citizen a well-made toga and a pair of good sandals. Gold is such an excellent store of value that today one troy ounce will still buy a gentleman a quality tailored suit and a pair of leather shoes, along with shirt, tie, socks, cuff links, underwear. Name one currency that has retained that type of value.

It’s clear that we need some comprehensive strategy to ride out the coming economic storm. Will we repeat the mistakes of the 80s?

Visited four jewelry stores, asking about possible purchase of gold ingots, small bars, coins or other forms of bullion. All persons approached seemed perplexed. One salesperson even suggested I ask someone to smuggle it out of Guyana for me!

- Trini Funshooter