23 June, 2009

Scenario planning: What if T&T has another emergency like 1990?

What if T&T has another major emergency? Would you be prepared? Would you feel comfortable that the protective services can, or will? Any major emergency event can happen: T&T experiences a severe hurricane, great earthquake, an invasion from a neighbouring country, terrorists disrupting energy supplies or even another coup. Should the emergency occur over an extended period, can you feed, protect and shelter you family?

Within the first three or four days, the police will go around to the homes of those listed in the firearms register. They will confiscate all firearms and there isn’t a thing you can do about it (read sec 22[1] of the Firearms Act). No pleading, no reasoning, no calls to your superstar constitutional attorney can prevent it. You will be stripped of your legal means of protecting yourself and loved ones, right at the very moment that you need to the most.

The criminals and their families must eat and drink, so the looting begins. After HiLo, TruValu and the other major groceries have been stripped bare, then the smaller groceries and mini marts will also be attacked. Next, unless order is restored, the little neighbourhood shops and parlours will experience the same treatment. Finally, home invasions will be so rampant, that the protective services-being stretched so thin-may not respond.

Armed gangs will terrorise entire communities, picking off the weak, unprepared and unarmed at will. Home invasions, murders, rapes, kidnappings, auto theft, praedial larceny and illegal forcible evictions will be the order of the day.

We are told that one prepares for war in the time of peace. We missed that boat, the war is already on.

Scenario planning is a strategic planning method used by military intelligence and other organisations for flexible long-term plans. Neighbourhood watch groups, families, businesses and NGOs can adapt the methods to their particular environment. It is one way to build community resilience.

Get together with other stakeholders and develop your emergency plan now. Remember, a plan is not a plan, unless it is written down and can be shown to someone else. Otherwise it is still only an idea.

In ‘the fog of war’, ideas may be easily forgotten, and people revert to training and conditioning. Without plans, bad decisions are made, with sometimes fatal repercussions. Develop your plans today. Test them. Do an emergency drill. See what works, what doesn’t. Make your changes and test again. Refine your plan until it is good enough for your survival, and ensure all stakeholders internalize it, or at least have a copy.

Trust in God. But have recourse to lethal force.

Have a plan to survive. Prep your beans, bullets, band-aids and training.

1 comment:

  1. Would I feel confident in the protective services?
    You now what? That is a brilliant question and the answer is no more than ever now.

    The government does not seem to feel obligated to protect us (and they probably are not) but they sure won't hesitate to step in to squelch fed-up law-abiding citizens if they decide to take action--and obviously so; only the law-abiding are afraid of the law.


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